占い師の死角
Fortune teller’s biggest problems are not what you might think
文字数 3,243字
「私たちの人生に、大体の探している答えは質問の範囲にあるのではない」
こんにちは、鎌倉です。いつも読んでださりありがとうございます^^
Hi, everyone! Welcome to my blog! (and please come again!)
前回書いた通り私はこのブログを始めたのは発想をエッセイで記録するためですが、十分に楽しく読める内容になるために何度も文章を整えてますので、ご安心ください(๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧（小説を書いている人の背景なので、読者の娯楽は一番重視しています笑）
Even though I started this blog because I wanted to record my ideas as essays as I said last time, in order to make sure that it is fun to read I spent so, so much time editing them, so you can be sure that I won’t waste your time! (As someone who writes novel, reader’s entertainment is my priority!)
『占い師の死角』は占いの根本的な問題についてです。今まで占いが科学的ではない意見をよく聞いても、それはただ外から見る視点だけで、本当の問題ではないです。
“Fortune teller’s biggest problems” will talk about the fundamental problems in fortune-telling. Although we might often hear about opinions that fortune-telling is not scientific and such, that is just the view as an outsider and not the real problems themselves.
まず、このエッセイを続けるために、ある占い師の存在を想像してほしいです。
First of all, before continuing, I would like you to imagine that there is a certain fortune teller.
この占い師は具体的に自分の占いを証明できなくても、一般人より何かの『センス』があるのを周りの人も感じて、占うときはこの人は占術を使ってますが、客に結果を伝えるときにはまだその『センス』に頼るのです。
Even though this fortune teller cannot prove so well that their fortune-telling is true, as for the people who are close to them, they do feel that this fortune teller somewhat has an “unusual sense”, which when giving a reading the fortune teller may use one of the established fortune-telling methods (tarot etc.), but when it comes to telling the results to the clients, they may still have to resort to this “unusual sense”.
しかし、そのセンスは、例えば将来のことなら動画の再生くらいはっきり見えなく、恋人や仕事などの占うために覗こうとしたらただ暗く曖昧だし、目の前のことと違って、何が知りたいのか暗闇に選択型の質問や『イエス』か『ノー』かの質問を聞くようです。
However, as for such sense, when it deals with something in the future, for example, they may not be able to see it clearly as if it is a video being played, that upon trying to take a glimpse on matters such as love and career, when giving a reading, it would only appear to them only in hazy and vague form. Since it is different from something they would see with their own eyes, whenever they wish to know about a certain thing, it is likely that they would have to probe it with closed-ended questions or “yes” or “no” questions.
占い師は詐欺師かどうか、みんなこの態度くらい主張すると思いますが。
Regardless of whether a fortune teller is fake or not, I think that normally they may claim to have this stance with their job.
選択型質問の例えは、もし客が「将来、私はパイロットになれますか？」と聞いたら、この占い師はうーんと考えると「あなたは色んな国に行く仕事をするらしいね。この感じはパイロットではなくても沢山旅をしている仕事かもしれません」と、またほかの客が「水族館が好きです。将来そこで働けますか？」と聞いたら、占い師が「海を感じますね、できるようです」みたいに占うシナリオになりますね。
As for some examples about the closed-ended questions, if a client asks that “will I become an airline pilot in the future?” this fortune teller may think hard for a moment and says “I can feel that you are going to travel to so many countries, and so even if you are no going to become a pilot, I am sure that you must be in the job that travels a lot.” And then if another client asks “I am really in love with aquariums; will I be able to work there in the future?” the fortune teller might say “I can feel the sea from your future, perhaps that is possible,” this kind of scenarios.
ピニャータのやり方みたいに見えなくても当たるまで打ち続ける、これは十分に良さそうですが、ちゃんと考えたら問題だらけです……
Even though without seeing anything, and the method of “keep swinging the bat until it hits” just like in hitting the piñata seems to be a practical way for the situation at first, when we think carefully it is riddled with problems…
上記の通り占い師は本当に『センス』があって、その『ブラックボックス』に質問をしてどれくらい情報を取れても、あるものの本性までわかるのには数十の質問が必要かもしれません。（例えば先のパイロットの占い、色んな国に行くのは結局Fed-Exの店員かもしれないし、水族館の占いはただ魚の水槽がある中華レストランで働くかもしれなません！）
As I said above that given that our fortune teller really has the “sense” and can question the “black box” to obtain whatever information they would like, it might take dozens of questions until they understand what the matter in question really is in entirety. (For example, with the reading that the client probably becomes an airline pilot in the future, by saying that he is going to travel to many countries, it may equally mean that he would end up working on Fed-Ex freighters. And with the aquarium job reading, the person may as well find themselves working at a Chinese restaurant with fish tanks instead!)
後は占いが当たっても現実に着かないかもしれません。それはみなさんの子どもの頃の視点を考えてほしいです。
Then, even if the reading is correct, it may not reflect reality as much. And by that, I would like you to recall how you view the world when you are younger.
将来の仕事は何か、イケメンの恋人と出会う運命があるか質問を抱いたかもしれませんが、今は自分が金持ちだしそういうイケメンと付き合うかもしれないが、期待した幸せより普通に不幸が多いと感じるのはあるあるではないですか。
You might have had questions about your future job, or whether you are destined to be with some handsome guy in the future, but now as for you who might have become rich and is really dating such handsome guy, instead of having all the happiness expected, what you only find is that life is filled with constant disappointment, don’t you?
今の質問もそうです、仕事とか恋愛とか、できたら当時本当に幸せになるだろうか。
That is the same with the questions now about job or love and all else, that even though you have them, are you sure you would be happy with your life when the time comes?
そして、タイトルに書いた一番の死角という問題は、占い師が考えている質問は誘導するかどうかの話で、示唆的な質問だと言えるかもしれません。
From there, what I wrote in the title about the most problematic point or blind spot in fortune-telling is that: whether the question asking is misleading or not. Which is what we might call the suggestive question.
もっともはっきりした例えは、最近インスタで見た動画を持ち出したいです。
I would like to mention a video on Instagram I saw recently as a clearer example.
ブックマークしてなくて今その動画を探せませんが、内容は教室でのプランクで、多分東南アジアのどこかです。（確かではないですが）そこで中華系らしい学生の女の子３人は隣席の１人の男子をわざとじっと見つめて、プランクだと知らない男子は違和感だし、恥ずかしそうにする反応を楽しめます。
I did not bookmark the video and so I could no longer find it, but it is about a prank in the classroom, which probably is somewhere in Southeast Asia (not sure). In there, of all the students who seem to be of Chinese descent, the three girls intentionally keep staring at the boy who sits next to them, and this boy who does not know that it is a prank seems to get shy and behaves uncomfortably, which his reaction is the point of this prank.
コメント欄には、面白いという意見以外に男子の反応で女の子たちの誰が好きだとわかると書いた女性のユーザーが多がありました。「そっか」と思った私は、当時一緒にいた兄にこの動画を見せて男子がだれを好きかわかるかと聞くと、「彼は３人みんな好きだ」と言われました。
In the comment section, apart from the people saying that it is funny, there are many comments from women that among the girl students, they know exactly whom the boy likes based on his reaction. “Really?” so I thought, and at that time since I happened to be with my brother, I showed this video to him and asked if he knew whom the boy liked. Then he told me that “the boy likes all of them, you know.”
え？
Huh?
兄としゃべると、女性はだれがだれかを好きか厳しいけど、男はかわいいならだれでもいいと（また）聞きました。
Upon talking with my brother, even if women tend to have only one person whom they like, I learned (again) that as for men, as long as the girl is cute whoever is fine for them.
（男性みんななわけではないですが、大体そうだと思います）
(Although that is not the case with all men, I guess that at least it must be most of them)
この点で占いと関係があるのは、もしこの教室のプランクのシチュエーションみたいに、実際に男子は女の子３人が好きですが、占い師の客が女性で、男子が女の子の三人の中でだれが好きかと聞いたら、真剣にセンスを使って１人の答えを答えられる占い師は質問に騙される意味ではないですか。
How this point is related to the fortune-telling is that, in the situation similar to this classroom prank, if in fact the boy can like any of the three girls indiscreetly, and the client of the fortune teller who happens to be a woman asks that whom the boy likes among the three girls, wouldn’t we say that our fortune teller who strains their sense until they come up with a certain girl as the answer, is being tricked by the question?
このポイントは繊細ですが、とても注意すべきです。
This point may seem trifling, but it really is something that you should pay attention to.
例えのブラックボックスはどれくらい万能でも、人はただ見たいことしか見られないせいで、目の前の現実を把握できない可能性があります。
Even if the black box from our example knows everything, because of our shortcoming that we only see what we are looking for, we might fail to understand the reality in front of our very eyes.
占いだけではなく、日常的なことでこういうこともあるようです。
And it is not only with fortune-telling, in our daily life this situation also invariably happens.
例えば「彼はどんな髪型の女性が好きか」質問して自分はいっぱいこだわっても、結局どの髪型にしても相手が全然気づかないかもしれません。「どんな文章を書いたらいいか」と相手へメッセージを送ろうとして、数時間それを考えても、振り返ったら実は送らない方がいい、「俺はどうしたら女がいっぱいできるか」と思う男子はナンパなどの作戦を永遠に考えて、ただ解決はちゃんと働いてお金持ちになることかもしれません。というわけで、言った質問の範囲ではない答えがある場合が多いですね。
For example, in case that we are someone who is obsessed with the question about “what kind of girl’s hairstyles does he like?” it may turn out that no matter what we do with our hair, this guy might not notice at all. When we are going to send a message to others and keep thinking that “is this message good enough?” and then edit it for so many hours, upon looking back, we might find it better not to send anything at all. And then as for a guy who thinks “how can I get a lot of girls” and spends most of his mental power devising strategies on how to approach girls, the best way to achieve so might rather be to work hard and become rich instead. Thus, there are all kinds of questions as I mentioned that the answers do not fit within their scopes.
「もし人はあることを解決できる知恵があったら、そもそもそれは問題にならない」ということわざが、この場合本当かもしれません。その悩みをクリエイティブに解決するのは多分ビジネスに『Think outside the box』（今までの自分の考える範囲を超えて、斬新な視点で問題を見る）の用語はよく使われるみたいです。そして、何の行動の選択肢というより、解決は世界観を変えたり、新しい態度を取るというのもあります。
The saying that “if a person is capable of solving a certain problem, they might not find it as a problem to begin with” may be very much relatable to this case. Likewise, in the business world, the idea of “think outside the box” is often used to refer to how the problems should be solved creatively. Moreover, rather than the choices as for what actions we should take, there may be cases that the best solution is for us to change our attitude and how we view the world.
そうできる人は『知恵』(wisdom)があるようだと言えますが、それは『知能』(intelligence)の違いと指摘したいです。
We may say that someone who is capable of thinking beyond common boundaries as having “wisdom”, and here I would like to point out the difference comparing to what we call “intelligence”.
『知能』は自分に出された問題を解決する力です。例えば将棋や東大王のテレビ番組に参加するみたいでその知能を見せますが、逆に『知恵』はもっと遠くから全体的に見る視点のようで、何かするのは意味があるか、後悔するか、もっといい方法があるか、と言う考え方です。なので、仙人やグルみたいに私たちは彼らの生活を真似たくなくても、どうしても不幸になる世間から離れられて、静かに生きられる彼らは知恵があるのではないかと私たちは言うかもしれません。
“Intelligence” is a capability of solving a problem that is being posed to oneself at hand. For example, that is as in when we play shogi or participate in “Toudai Ou” (a TV program that participants who are Tokyo University students would compete in a quiz game concerning academic knowledge) we would need such intelligence, but on the contrary, “wisdom” is somewhat an assessment of a situation as a whole, thinking about the meaningfulness of one’s action as if in hindsight, and also whether there is any better way out. Therefore, even if we do not want to live the way hermits or gurus do, since they are able to distance themselves from the world where we would end up in unhappiness for no matter what we do, and are able to live peacefully, we might want to call them as having wisdom after all.
占いの話に戻ったら、本当にその占い師は『センス』があるかどうか、一般的な占い師のよう、質問の答えを探るのは示唆的な質問でなら、外れる可能性は無限で、『群盲象を評す』話みたいす。
And then if we are to return to fortune-telling, no matter if a fortune teller really has the “sense” or not, it is similar to all other fortune-tellers that if the question is suggestive, the possibility of being misled is endless, such as in the story of “Blind men and an elephant”.
「彼が好きかどうか」、「金持ちになるかどうか」。「イエス」か「ノー」かの質問しか聞かない私たちは考え方はリニアですが、現実の世界に可能性とそのコンビネーションが数えられないほどあって、確かにリニアではないそれは、『イエス』か『ノー』かと聞いても正しい構成を作れなさそうです。
Even if we who keep asking “yes” or “no” questions such as “does he like me or not?” or “will I become rich or not?” seem to have a linear way of thinking, in the real world the possibility and combination are countless, which of course that they are not linear, so that we should not be able to construct the correct framework from just “yes” or “no” questions.
私は検索してみて占いに『バーナム効果』などが問題視するのは、まだそれよりこの『示唆的な質問』の大きな問題がわからないです。
When I googled previously, I found that people pay attention to “Barnum effect” and such when pointing out the problems with fortune-telling, but they do not know that this “suggestive question” actually poses a far bigger problem than that.
それに例えば占い師が「あなたはよく人に裏切られたね」や「あなたの愛犬は最近死んだね」とか正しく言えてもっと力があったら、ほとんどの占い師が自分のアジェンダや世界観があって、例えばみんなは道徳に生きるのとか、その世界観のせいでまた伝えることに影響を受けて、さらに現実に着かないかもしれません。
Furthermore, even when a fortune teller has more power and could correctly say that “you are often betrayed by someone you loved” or that “I feel that your dog has just died recently,” most of the fortune tellers often have that own agenda and point of view, for example, for you to behave morally, and with this point of view it affects the readings that they tell you, adding more deviation towards fortune-telling.
もしみなさんは占い師に見てもらったら、例えば（はい、例えです）彼らに本当のセンスがあれば、正しさは彼らの責任より、みなさんの質問の仕方で、曖昧に聞かない方がいいと思います。
If you by any chances see a fortune teller and that they really have the sense (yes, this is hypothetical!), the accuracy does not rely on only them, but also with the way you ask questions, such as that you should not be more precise with what you ask.
そして占いに興味があまりない方に、今回言った占いの問題は科学的に証明できるかどうかより、万が一本当に才能ある占い師が存在しても、これは彼らの一番弱いところです。
And as for you who are not interested in fortune-telling, the problems about fortune-telling that I said this time is not much about whether it can be proved scientifically or not, that even if there really are the true fortune tellers, this would be still their most vulnerable point.
私たちの人生に、大体の探している答えは質問の範囲にあるのではない、と覚えてほしいです。
I would like you to remember that in our lives, most of the answers we are looking for do not lie within the scope of the questions.
占いをする方がいたら、占いはあまり科学的ではないですが、もう少し科学的に考えたらいいと思います。まず自分の感じることや洞察力にのみに頼らず、すべてを疑った方がいいと思います。
And if there is anyone here who practices fortune-telling, although fortune-telling is not much scientific to begin with, I think that it should be better if you would treat it more scientifically. That is by not being elated by what you can feel or other insights that appear to you and suspect all of them would be a good starting point.
なぜなら私はこう言える立場だと思いますが。信じてくれたら嬉しいです！
Anyway, I think that I am in the position to say this. So please believe me!
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おまけ
最近この模様で…
これを描いてみました‼
もしこのバージョンの義勇様もかっこいい(ᗒᗢᗕ)と思ったら、ぜひぜひ今回と次回のブログを応援してください( ੭ ・ᴗ・ )੭‼（笑）
